Is the stunning lead of Fidesz in the polls misleading?

A passionate liberal critic of the government is convinced that opposition parties are significantly underrated in public opinion polls, but no one can tell to what extent. “All we know is that we don’t know”, runs her headline.

In Népszabadság, András Boda and Tamás Lajos Szalay report that according to the latest polls the union of left-wing forces has not produced any positive results. Fidesz has consolidated its lead, while the Left has lost ground and leads by a mere one percentage point over the radical right-wing Jobbik party. Quoting experts they remark that slthough the figures differ according to the methods used by individual pollsters, the trends more or less converge.

In Élet és Irodalom, sociologist Mária Vásárhelyi recalls that 12 years ago pollsters grossly overrated Fidesz a week before the elections and instead of losing as they predicted, the Socialist Party turned out to be the winner. Apart from the lame Fidesz campaign and the success of the Socialists in mobilizaing their supporters, the main reason behind the mistaken predictions was that anti-Fidesz voters systematically declined to reveal their voting intentions, she suggests.

Since then, pollsters have encountered a steeply increasing tendency to hide voting intentions,  and now have to make as many as 10 phone calls to get one respondent, or 4 door-to-door attempts to make one interview. Similar trends have been reported in other countries as well, as a result of the  massive effort by commercial pollsters to sense various consumer preferences. Nevertheless, Vársárhelyi is convinced that in Hungary, refusal is systematically higher among those who are prone to vote against the present government. The reasons she gives are twofold. On the one hand, refusal rates are higher among highly educated people and they tend to be more hostile to the right wing than the average. On the other hand, people who feel they are part of a minority are less inclined to reveal their opinions on sensitive issues, and opposition voters, including far-right sympathisers, may feel that way because of the superiority of the pro-government campaign. On top of it all, Vásárhelyi is convinced that people feel more intimidated by the government than 12 years ago. All in all she is certain that the opposition will get more votes than their showing in the polls, but she does not dare to estimate how many more.

Jobbik’s good showing in polls

A political analyst commenting on the latest polls contends that far-right Jobbik has increased its support as a result of its more moderate image. A left-wing columnist accuses Fidesz of legitimizing Jobbik’s racist language and thereby strengthening the radical right-wing party. Another left-wing commentator is intrigued by the propensity among left-wing voters to feel nostalgic about the Kádár era. READ MORE

Undecided voters in focus

Analysts struggle to account for the gap between opinion polls and the results of local by-elections. They all agree that undecided voters without clear preferences or who are unwilling to share their views with pollsters, will have a major role in the 2014 election and thus parties will spare no effort to mobilize them. READ MORE

Hungarians and conspiracy theories

According to a recent poll, 42 per cent of Hungarians believe in secret plots aimed at ruling their country from behind the scenes. Although Fidesz voters are less likely to buy these conspiracy theories than Socialist sympathizers, a left-wing commentator blames the government for the popularity of such views. READ MORE

Fidesz still ahead in polls

Commenting on the latest opinion polls, a centrist and a pro-government commentator wonder why the left-wing parties have not managed to increase their support, although a majority of voters are dissatisfied with the current government. READ MORE

Opposition not yet in combat mode

A popular political analyst suggests that the opposition is too busy settling its own internal rivalries to successfully counter the government’s public relations offensive and to increase its own rating. READ MORE

Government widens its lead

Right-wing columnists review the latest opinion polls, and conclude that the opposition parties are unlikely to challenge the governing coalition at the 2014 parliamentary elections. READ MORE

The government’s image at home and abroad

The man in charge of the government’s international image suggests that Hungary’s international critics have become more cautious. The editor in chief of a leftist daily is sceptical about the figures of a poll according to which most Hungarians still have faith in the government. READ MORE

Political analyst argues for a coalition government in 2014

In the search for a balance between efficient government and democratic checks and balances, a popular centrist analyst finds that after the present centralized power structure, a coalition government would be a welcome change. READ MORE

MSZP’s self-confidence may backfire

A popular analyst suggests Fidesz may profit from the self-assurance Socialist leaders have been exhibiting lately as a result of recent trends in party preferences. READ MORE