A conservative about to vote for LMP

A conservative commentator thinks another two-thirds majority would be too much and advocates voting for LMP. READ MORE

A weekend of campaign rallies

The rallies of the last weekend before the election are seen by commentators as shows of strength. While left-liberal minded observers think Fidesz is underestimating its opponent, a leading pro-government commentator finds the joint opposition rally pathetic and ridiculous. READ MORE

Will Fidesz keep its 2/3 majority?

Left-wing commentators still hope that a crushing Fidesz victory can be prevented. In that case, they suggest, any complaints from the Left about the new election rules will seem more credible. Their right-wing counterparts meanwhile are pulling out all the stops to mobilise their readers for one last push. They argue that the latest scandals have stripped the Left of its last shreds of credibility. READ MORE

Is the stunning lead of Fidesz in the polls misleading?

A passionate liberal critic of the government is convinced that opposition parties are significantly underrated in public opinion polls, but no one can tell to what extent. “All we know is that we don’t know”, runs her headline.

In Népszabadság, András Boda and Tamás Lajos Szalay report that according to the latest polls the union of left-wing forces has not produced any positive results. Fidesz has consolidated its lead, while the Left has lost ground and leads by a mere one percentage point over the radical right-wing Jobbik party. Quoting experts they remark that slthough the figures differ according to the methods used by individual pollsters, the trends more or less converge.

In Élet és Irodalom, sociologist Mária Vásárhelyi recalls that 12 years ago pollsters grossly overrated Fidesz a week before the elections and instead of losing as they predicted, the Socialist Party turned out to be the winner. Apart from the lame Fidesz campaign and the success of the Socialists in mobilizaing their supporters, the main reason behind the mistaken predictions was that anti-Fidesz voters systematically declined to reveal their voting intentions, she suggests.

Since then, pollsters have encountered a steeply increasing tendency to hide voting intentions,  and now have to make as many as 10 phone calls to get one respondent, or 4 door-to-door attempts to make one interview. Similar trends have been reported in other countries as well, as a result of the  massive effort by commercial pollsters to sense various consumer preferences. Nevertheless, Vársárhelyi is convinced that in Hungary, refusal is systematically higher among those who are prone to vote against the present government. The reasons she gives are twofold. On the one hand, refusal rates are higher among highly educated people and they tend to be more hostile to the right wing than the average. On the other hand, people who feel they are part of a minority are less inclined to reveal their opinions on sensitive issues, and opposition voters, including far-right sympathisers, may feel that way because of the superiority of the pro-government campaign. On top of it all, Vásárhelyi is convinced that people feel more intimidated by the government than 12 years ago. All in all she is certain that the opposition will get more votes than their showing in the polls, but she does not dare to estimate how many more.

Jobbik’s mounting popularity connected to “African” revelations

Népszabadság believes that in reaction to the low moral standards of mainstream political parties, disenchanted voters may turn towards the extreme right. READ MORE

An argument against abstentionism

A liberal commentator famous for his disrespectful remarks about politicians on all sides warns against the temptation to proudly boycott the coming Parliamentary election. He himself is not fond of any of the contenders, he says, but will be able to make his choice, nonetheless. READ MORE

Left-wing media propose electoral TV duels

Népszabadság and ATV propose a series of televised debates, including a duel between PM Viktor Orbán and Socialist Party leader Attila Mesterházy during the last week of the campaign. Right-wing pundits dismiss the idea that such pre-electoral debates are a must in any democracy. READ MORE

Boycotting Jobbik doesn’t work

A liberal commentator encourages mainstream politicians to face Jobbik MPs in public debates as the radical right-wing party is too strong to be ignored. READ MORE

Australian Hungary report criticised

An independent conservative blogger is outraged by an Australian news report depicting Hungary as a country swarming with Nazi-like far-right militias who enjoy the obvious connivance of the Prime Minister. READ MORE

Pre-election landscape

Commentators on both the right and left fear that Jobbik may increase its constituency yet further in the 6 April Parliamentary election, after reaping almost 17 per cent of the popular vote four years ago. Left-wing commentators argue against despair, and one lays the blame for the bankruptcy of the Left on the Liberals and personally on Ferenc Gyurcsány. READ MORE