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Analyst paints a grim picture of the prospects for peace

November 1st, 2023

An expert on international politics and strategy sees no signs of a lasting solution to the war between Russia and Ukraine or Israel’s war on Hamas.

In Magyar Nemzet, György Nógrádi suggests peace is a distant dream in the two major wars among the 31 armed conflicts underway in the world. As for Ukraine, he believes human resources are overstrained while weapon supplies from the West are insufficient to tip the balance in Kyiv’s favour. The analyst doesn’t believe it possible to drive Russian troops out of Ukrainian territory and believes therefore that the two sides will have to declare a ceasefire and start a painful process of coming to terms with reality. Unfortunately, he writes, that will happen later rather than sooner.

As to the Gaza war which is just unfolding, he believes Israel can destroy the Hamas infrastructure, but that will not result in peace. A ceasefire and even an armistice is possible, he suggests, but the great issues are those of the borders of a future Palestinian state, as well as the problems of refugees, water supply and the status of Jerusalem. Those vital questions aren’t even being discussed, he warns.

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