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The prospect of a hung Parliament

February 10th, 2022

A left-wing commentator speculates on the possibility of a stalemate after the April election. Such a turn of events could eventually lead to a decisive opposition victory, he suggests.

In Népszava, István Zalatnay takes it for granted that neither the opposition nor the government side are likely to win the next elections with a sizeable majority. It would not surprise him, moreover, if neither side wins sufficient mandates to form a stable government. This scenario is feasible, he continues, if two small contenders, the radical right-wing ‘Our Country’ and the Twin-Tailed Dog parties pass the 5% parliamentary threshold. In that case one of the two main rivals – Fidesz or the United Opposition – would have to get at least five additional mandates from individual constituencies, which seems extremely difficult as things stand now. If no new government can be elected, Zalatnay continues, the National Assembly will have to be dissolved. He offers two reasons to believe that new elections might easily be won by the opposition. Firstly, the public debt accumulated by the government to win the favours of the electorate will result in a financial crunch with unavoidable consequences for the government’s popularity. Secondly, with the myth of its invincibility shaken, Fidesz will lose substantial segments of its electorate, Zalatnay speculates. Such a scenario, he concludes, might even end in what he calls the ‘Fidesz nightmare’, with the opposition winning two thirds of the mandates in Parliament.

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