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Conflicting polls on the chances of the opposition

December 18th, 2021

Based on a yet unpublished but leaked opinion poll, a left-wing outlet castigates the opposition for ceding the initiative and the lead to the government side, while the left-wing nationwide daily publishers poll results which show the opposition ahead of Fidesz.

In 444.hu, Péter Magyari wonders why the opposition has practically suspended its campaign with only four months to go until the parliamentary elections. His answer is that the seven forces of the united opposition can hardly agree on anything to be proposed to the electorate. At least in the various program committees created by them. The top leaders usually find it easier to strike a deal, he remarks. Meanwhile, Magyari complains, according to a poll commissioned by a joint opposition committee, Fidesz is supported by 46% of the population, with the opposition trailing behind by 14 points. While, as he puts it, the opposition is practically doing nothing, 52% of respondents told the pollsters that they would keep the incumbent government in place, while only 43% would prefer a new one to be elected.

In Népszava, Ákos Zoltai finds the data of the poll published by 444.hu ‘surprising’, because earlier polls by pro-government and opposition-leaning pollsters alike had shown only small differences in the popularity of the two sides. He publishes new data by Publicus, a left-wing think tank which show the opposition ahead of the government side, with 36 against 32% within the total electorate. However, Publicus admits that the opposition has lost a few percentage points since the peak it achieved after the series of primaries where it chose its candidate for Prime Minister and its candidates in the individual constituencies. (For the opposition primaries see e.g. BudaPost, October 16.)

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