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Weighing the chances of the opposition alliance in 2022

April 30th, 2021

Commentators from across the political spectrum consider that while Budapest mayor Gergely Karácsony could be the strongest candidate for the opposition in the 2022 parliamentary election, he might be defeated by the Democratic Coalition’s Klára Dovrev in the primary election this autumn.

On Telex, Szabolcs Dull recalls that so far, three important politicians, Momentum’s András Fekete-Győr, Jobbik’s Péter Jakab and Péter Márki-Zay, Mayor of Hódmezővásárhely have announced their participation in the autumn opposition primary. The liberal analyst adds that Budapest Mayor Gergely Karácsony and the Democratic Coalition’s Klára Dobrev are also more than likely to run. Dull thinks that whoever wins will have a hard time uniting the competing and ideologically diverse opposition parties. He suggests that former PM Gyurcsány’s wife, Klára Dobrev’s victory would give an opportunity for Fidesz to claim that the opposition is the puppet of Ferenc Gyurcsány. The strongest candidate to beat the governing party would be Gergely Karácsony, Dull believes.

In an interview with Magyar Narancs, political scientist Gábor Török also thinks that Gergely Karácsony is the potential candiate most feared by Fidesz. Török suggests that both Klára Dobrev and Jobbik leader Péter Jakab would be easier targets for Fidesz in the campaign. As for their chances at the election, Török thinks that although the opposition is neck and neck with Fidesz in the polls, the 2022 ballot will be decided by the government’s success in managing the Covid crisis. ‘The opposition cannot win the election, but the government can lose it,’ Török claims.

In Magyar Nemzet, Dániel Deák asserts that the government’s pandemic crisis management has been a great success, while the opposition lacks a credible strategy. The pro-government commentator remarks that the popularity of Fidesz has slightly increased in the last months, which suggests that the opposition could not capitalize on the emergency or pandemic lockdown. Deák adds that in the two-round primary election, Klára Dobrev has the highest chance to win, despite being less popular among the broad electorate than Karácsony or Jakab.

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