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Liberal analyst on the chances of the opposition in 2022

January 6th, 2021

A political scientist from the Central European University (CEU) studies the latest opinion polls and cautions the opposition against believing that they have already closed the popularity gap and caught up with Fidesz.

On 444, Gábor Tóka, professor of political science at CEU, scrutinizes the contradictory opinion polls published in late December. According to the Závecz Research Institute, support for the joint opposition stands at 52 per cent of decided voters, 4 per cent higher than that of the the governing party. In Századvég’s survey, however, Fidesz leads by 50 per cent of the votes, while the opposition would get only 39 per cent. Tóka contends that the huge differences between the polls are the result of the politicization of opinion polling. As opinion polls are used by parties to boost their support, the data is less than reliable. After an in-depth look at the different survey methodologies used by the pollster companies, Tóka deems it unlikely that the opposition has really closed the gap in popularity. Concerning the Preliminaries to be held by the joint opposition, Tóka contends that the polls unanimously suggest that the opposition’s chances will not be significantly impacted by whomever they pick as their front-runner.

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