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Chances of the opposition in 2022

September 4th, 2020

A centrist analyst believes that it is impossible to predict who will win the 2022 election. The opposition has more chance of challenging Fidesz than in the past three elections, he suggests, but this does not imply that the joint opposition can triumph.

In a long blog entry, political scientist bor Török writes that in the 2022 Parliamentary elections, the joint opposition will have a greater opportunity than in the previous elections to defeat Fidesz, but this does not mean that they will win the election. On the one hand, economic slowdown plays into the hands of the opposition. Their chances are further increased if they run joint candidates in all 106 single seat constituencies. Furthermore in 2022, Fidesz will be have been in power for 12 years, which some voters may deem long enough, Török contends. On the other hand, Török thinks that Fidesz’s well-organized institutional setup and political communication is a great asset for the governing party. In addition, the unpopularity of Ferenc Gyurcsány also limits the chances of the opposition. Finally, the opposition wants to unite, but it still lacks a convincing and cohesive message, as well as the financial basis to win the election, he notes. Taken all these contingencies and uncertainties together, only “blind fanatics and clever politicians” claim that election victory in 2022 is inevitable.

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