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Recession deemed inevitable

April 16th, 2020

The leading online financial news outlet contends that there is a huge variation in GDP estimates for 2020, but all analysts agree that the Hungarian economy will shrink this year, followed by a sharp rebound in 2021.

Recession is inevitable, but it is not yet clear how deep Hungary’s economic decline will be, Portfolio writes. The independent online business media outlet recalls that before the coronavirus outbreak, Hungarian growth for 2020 was projected at around 3.5-4 per cent. Since the lockdown introduced as part of the state of emergency, all analysts project a recession, Portfolio notes. The forecasts, however, vary wildly. Pessimistic analysts expect a two digit decline in the GDP in 2020, while others project only a 2 per cent slowdown, Portfolio writes, adding that for 2021, all analysts predict rapid growth. Portfolio mentions that the IMF in its Tuesday regional projection estimated a 3.1 per cent decline in Hungary in 2020, the least dramatic in the region, followed by a sharp rebound in 2021. Portfolio concludes by suggesting that at this point it is not possible to gauge the growth implications of the coronavirus emergency. The only thing that is certain is that the economy will shrink in 2020.

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