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Jobbik in free fall

July 28th, 2018

Commenting on the latest opinion polls, a pro-government analyst contends that Jobbik is in deep crisis, and will find it extremely hard to reverse its decline.

According to a recent poll published by the pro-government Nézőpont Institute, three months after the April election, Fidesz support stands at 42 per cent of the total voting age population. Fidesz has further increased its base, and now has more than 3 million voters. Jobbik has further declined, and the party’s support stands at 10 per cent. The MSZP is rated at 6 per cent, the Democratic Coalition at 4, the LMP at 3, and Momentum at 2 per cent. Závecz Research published almost identical figures in July, although they put Fidesz popularity at 33 per cent of the potential electorate.

Jobbik’s support is in free fall, Zoltán Kiszelly comments on the opinion polls in Mozgástér blog. The conservative analyst ascribes those figures to Jobbik’s deep strategic crisis. The originally radical right-wing party that former Jobbik leader Gábor Vona tried to rebrand as a moderate centrist force has lost more of its supporters than any of the otherwise also weak opposition parties, Kiszelly notes. He underscores that Jobbik has become significantly less popular among young voters and rural voters with university degrees. The party has also lost its main sponsor as Lajos Simicska sold his business interests (see BudaPost July 9). Moreover, Jobbik has a huge debt as a result of illicit campaign financing (see BudaPost January 15, 2018 and December 11, 2017). In conclusion, Kiszelly wonders if and how Jobbik’s decline can be stopped.