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Fidesz surging ahead in the polls

October 30th, 2017

A liberal commentator remarks that the left-wing opposition is struggling to find a voice that could be appealing to their potential audience. A pro-government author predicts that Jobbik’s centrist turn will prove self-defeating at the next election.

In its latest poll report the independent TÁRKI think tank finds that Fidesz has increased its share of support among the total population by almost 20 percentage points over the past two years, making it extremely probable that they will win a two thirds majority in the parliamentary election scheduled for next spring.

In Hetek, Gábor Gavra believes that the Socialist Party is caught in a downward spiral launched by a series of betrayals. For the past 7 years, whoever they elected as party leader was swiftly scuttled by internal opponents, culminating in the forced resignation of Szeged Mayor László Botka, who had attempted to preserve at least the medium-sized status of his party. At that particular moment, DK leader Ferenc Gyurcsány rejected wholesale co-operation with the Socialist Party although Botka had to quit because he was not ready to cooperate with Gyurcsány. The DK leader’s behaviour suggests that he hopes to become the leading force on the Left once again, Gavra explains, while the MSZP sinks swiftly towards the 5% parliamentary threshold. That might result in relative success for Mr Gyurcsány, he continues, but the MSZP’s dramatic failure would also mean a catastrophe for the Left as a whole at the elections next year. True, Gavra remarks, the Left has abandoned its traditional role of protecting the interests of the poor and the middle class throughout the world, which explains its poor electoral showing in many countries over the past year.

In Demokrata, Péter Bándy thinks that although Jobbik is still the second strongest party in Hungary, it risks losing support as a result of its policy shift aiming to seek new supporters on the Left. He quotes recent Századvég research which found Jobbik still extremely unpopular among left-wing voters. Party leader Gábor Vona has been trying to court left-wing audiences lately in order to lure them away from the MSZP and DK, whom he characterised as 20th century parties unlike his own which he considers a 21st century political force. When asked if they would vote for a Jobbik candidate, eight MSP voters out of 10 said no. Meanwhile, Bándy finds Vona’s support dwindling among his traditional radical right-wing base, which means that while he is unable to recruit new followers on the Left, he might well lose many on the Right. Bándy’s conclusion is that after the next elections Vona will not be around any more as the Jobbik leader.

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