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Fidesz leads the polls

July 20th, 2016

A left-wing analyst urges the opposition to come up with a convincing alternative to the government before it is too late to run for the next parliamentary elections with any hope of success.

Népszava’s György Sebes finds the results of an opinion poll tracker published on Origo alarming. The charts based on the combined figures of  polls by five institutes show the governing Fidesz-KDNP alliance comfortably in the lead, with twice as many followers as Jobbik, the number two.

Fidesz leads the list with 44,8 per cent. Jobbik is second with 20 per cent. The MSZP would only get 16 per cent of the votes today. Even if the three left-wing parties formed an electoral coalition, they would only win six constituencies out of the 106, the chart shows. Another 92 mandates are allotted proportionally, and thus the united left would win 24 seats in Parliament (down from 38 at present).

Sebes recalls that four years ago, midway between two elections, the left was not as hopelessly behind the governing forces as it is today, and in 2000, two years before the election that Fidesz eventually narrowly lost, the MSZP was leading the polls. He wonders why the appeal of the left-wing parties is so low, despite that fact that in his view more and more people are critical of the regime the governing parties are building. He thinks the new leaders of the Socialist Party have very little time left to work out a reply to the messages that allowed the government to keep and even broaden its base.


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