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Forint to be a loser or winner of the Greek crisis?

June 30th, 2015

A pro-Greek economist believes Hungary’s debt burden is incomparably lighter than Greece’s, but it is unclear at the moment to what extent the markets will appreciate that difference.

In an interview with Hír TV, a right-wing station twinned with Magyar Nemzet, economist Zoltán Pogátsa says it is difficult to predict if countries like Hungary, which run a medium size public debt, will be teamed up by investors with Greece or will be treated differently. Greece’s public debt is twice as high measured as a percentage of the GDP as that of Hungary, he explains. If nevertheless, Hungary will be dumped “into the Greek basket”, the Forint will weaken. Pogátsa thinks it more likely, however, that Hungary will not be considered as a debtor of the Greek kind, in which case the Forint will appreciate against the Euro and most other currencies. But which of the two scenarios will be followed, “is terribly hard to predict”, he says.
In Monday’s trading, the Forint lost about one per cent to the Euro.

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