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May 2012: a tilt in the polls?

June 8th, 2012

A popular political analyst believes if elections were held today, the outcome would be uncertain – for the first time since 2010.

According to the four major polling agencies, Fidesz has already lost its unassailable lead.  Two years ago, the party mustered roughly as much popular support as all its competitors combined. And since its left-wing opponents are incompatible with the extreme right-wing opposition, until May this year the Fidesz lead seemed sufficient to win the next elections – even taking into account a serious plunge in popularity since 2010. In May, however, one agency reported that the Socialists had almost caught up with Fidesz. According to the remaining three, the governing party is still ahead, but the three left-wing parties combined have more supporters today than the moderate right-wing.

Fidesz-KDNP (% of all potential voters)

Polling agency Medián Ipsos Tárki Századvég
May 2012 22 16 16 24

MSZP-LMP-DK (% of all potential voters)

Polling agency Medián Ipsos Tárki Századvég
MAY 2012 16+5+2=23 12+4+2=18 15+5+2=22 15+7+3=25

Gábor Török thinks Fidesz took a great risk in enacting a “first past the post”-system in the new electoral law.  If it wins, it may easily reap a two thirds majority in Parliament. But if it loses, it is the opposition that could win over two thirds of the mandates. The analyst remarks that the exceptionally high ratio of non-respondents or non-voters (around 50 per cent) makes it impossible to determine who would actually be the winner, if elections were to be held today. In any case, Török concludes, in order to regain a secure winning position, Fidesz would have to reverse current trends in party preferences.

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