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Fidesz must reverse current trends to win in 2014

June 14th, 2012

A centrist commentator suggests that Fidesz is sliding towards electoral defeat, and to change that trend a shift would be needed in government policies.

Elaborating on his previous analysis of recent public opinion polls (see BudaPost, June 8), Gábor Török believes the present popularity figures are not too bad compared to the mid-term ratings of previous governments.   However, if we extrapolate the trend of the past two years, then we end up with a graph showing the defeat of Fidesz in two years’ time. Nevertheless, he warns, tendencies are there to turn some day . He quotes two examples from the last two decades when after the half-term low, governing parties raised their popularity. One example is of Fidesz during its first spell in government, when after a period of fairly tight fiscal policy, they relaxed the national finances in the 12 months running up to the elections. The second example is the first Gyurcsány cabinet, when the replacement of PM Medgyessy helped to raise expectations. Under the present circumstances, however, popular public spending is not an option. The public’s appraisal of Fidesz will depend on the battle of explanations – why they pushed through certain measures. And this is a battle which Fidesz has been losing for the last two years. Török concludes therefore that Fidesz will not be able to reverse the slide in its popularity without a sharp turn in the policies it has pursued so far. He does not elaborate, however on what direction that turn should take.

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