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Speculation about an early election unfounded

November 26th, 2011

A moderate right-wing columnist finds the recent guesswork about a possible early election groundless. He believes that Fidesz has no reason to call an early vote, as it can win easily in 2014.

Fidesz can only be defeated in the 2014 election if the party splits,” András Stumpf comments in Heti Válasz, in response to a flurry of speculation.

According to some analysts, including Gábor Török, Fidesz may soon start to contemplate the possibility of extending its mandate by calling an election in 2012. According to this line of thought, such a move would be a reasonable reaction to the constant decline in support for the governing party. The latest opinion polls by two polling agencies, Median and Tárki suggest that since the 2010 elections Fidesz has lost about half its supporters, and a record number of Hungarians think that the country is going in the wrong direction. The opposition parties, however, have failed to capitalise significantly on such a change in the public mood, so Fidesz maintains its massive lead.

Stumpf contends that without a strong challenger in sight, Fidesz should not worry over much about its diminishing popularity. The poposed electoral reform (see BudaPost November 23) will provide over-representation for the party which receives the most votes. Fidesz has such a strong lead  that it could only be defeated by a broad coalition of  opposition parties, but an alliance between the Socialists and the radical right-wing Jobbik party is highly unlikely.

Fidesz can only be defeated if the party splits along a line between moderate conservative and radical leaning members, Stumpf suggests. In this very improbable case, the next government would be formed by Jobbik, he concludes.

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