The rallies of the last weekend before the election are seen by commentators as shows of strength. While left-liberal minded observers think Fidesz is underestimating its opponent, a leading pro-government commentator finds the joint opposition rally pathetic and ridiculous. READ MORE
Left-wing commentators still hope that a crushing Fidesz victory can be prevented. In that case, they suggest, any complaints from the Left about the new election rules will seem more credible. Their right-wing counterparts meanwhile are pulling out all the stops to mobilise their readers for one last push. They argue that the latest scandals have stripped the Left of its last shreds of credibility. READ MORE
A passionate liberal critic of the government is convinced that opposition parties are significantly underrated in public opinion polls, but no one can tell to what extent. “All we know is that we don’t know”, runs her headline.
In Népszabadság, András Boda and Tamás Lajos Szalay report that according to the latest polls the union of left-wing forces has not produced any positive results. Fidesz has consolidated its lead, while the Left has lost ground and leads by a mere one percentage point over the radical right-wing Jobbik party. Quoting experts they remark that slthough the figures differ according to the methods used by individual pollsters, the trends more or less converge.
In Élet és Irodalom, sociologist Mária Vásárhelyi recalls that 12 years ago pollsters grossly overrated Fidesz a week before the elections and instead of losing as they predicted, the Socialist Party turned out to be the winner. Apart from the lame Fidesz campaign and the success of the Socialists in mobilizaing their supporters, the main reason behind the mistaken predictions was that anti-Fidesz voters systematically declined to reveal their voting intentions, she suggests.
Since then, pollsters have encountered a steeply increasing tendency to hide voting intentions, and now have to make as many as 10 phone calls to get one respondent, or 4 door-to-door attempts to make one interview. Similar trends have been reported in other countries as well, as a result of the massive effort by commercial pollsters to sense various consumer preferences. Nevertheless, Vársárhelyi is convinced that in Hungary, refusal is systematically higher among those who are prone to vote against the present government. The reasons she gives are twofold. On the one hand, refusal rates are higher among highly educated people and they tend to be more hostile to the right wing than the average. On the other hand, people who feel they are part of a minority are less inclined to reveal their opinions on sensitive issues, and opposition voters, including far-right sympathisers, may feel that way because of the superiority of the pro-government campaign. On top of it all, Vásárhelyi is convinced that people feel more intimidated by the government than 12 years ago. All in all she is certain that the opposition will get more votes than their showing in the polls, but she does not dare to estimate how many more.
A liberal commentator famous for his disrespectful remarks about politicians on all sides warns against the temptation to proudly boycott the coming Parliamentary election. He himself is not fond of any of the contenders, he says, but will be able to make his choice, nonetheless. READ MORE
Commenting on PM Orbán’s unwillingness to participate in a TV debate of candidates for the premiership, a leading conservative columnist says fair play and reasonable arguments would be prerequisites for a meaningful political debate. READ MORE
Left-wing commentators accuse Fidesz and PM Orbán of cowardice for not willing to participate in a public debate of candidates for the premiership before the April elections. READ MORE
The leading left-wing daily excoriates PM Viktor Orbán for drawing a parallel between the 1848 revolution and his government’s achievements. A conservative pundit, on the other hand, criticizes the opposition parties for considering the commemoration a campaign event. READ MORE
The leading pro-government daily accuses DK leader Ferenc Gyurcsány of planning violence if the opposition alliance wins.
A political analyst commenting on the latest polls contends that far-right Jobbik has increased its support as a result of its more moderate image. A left-wing columnist accuses Fidesz of legitimizing Jobbik’s racist language and thereby strengthening the radical right-wing party. Another left-wing commentator is intrigued by the propensity among left-wing voters to feel nostalgic about the Kádár era. READ MORE
A left-wing commentator accuses the government of manipulating the election through gerrymandering and domination of the media. A columnist in the leading left-wing daily contends that the public media distorts even reports on events on Ukraine in order to save PM Orbán’s face. A pro-government pundit, on the other hand, accuses former PM Gyurcsány of having manipulated the 2006 elections. READ MORE