A popular political scientist believes it is too early to forecast the outcome of next year’ elections, although the moderate right wing is far ahead in the polls.
In his regular monthly roundup in Heti Válasz, political scientist Gábor Török challenges the dominant opinion that the Prime Minister will most certainly be re-elected in 2014.
Opinion polls give Fidesz a strong lead (Medián measured 45 per cent for Fidesz among decided voters with a confessed party preference) over the MSZP (23 per cent) and its probable allies (Together-14 –10 per cent; DK – 4 per cent). 56 per cent of respondents said they would welcome a government change, but most are undecided voters.
Török thinks the high number of undecided voters, of whom a majority favour a change in government, leaves both options open. The campaign and the decision to be taken by voters will necessarily boil down to one single question. But what that question will be is not yet certain. It may be whether the electorate should punish the Prime Minister and his party, or whether they judge the leaders of the opposition fit – or not – for the job. He suggests that the outcome will depend on whether the election is focused on the government, or the alternative. In the first case, the right wing may easily be voted out of office, while in the second, the present opposition may appear too weak to win. The opposing camps seem to be conscious of this, and do their utmost to shift the focus of public debates onto their opponents, Török concludes.