Fidesz in for another two thirds parliamentary majority

Modelling the outcome of a potential parliamentary election based on combined data from six polling companies a pro-government news site writes that the government side would win more mandates today than  in the 2014 general election.

On Origo, András Kovács practically takes a two thirds Fidesz majority in Parliament for granted. Among decided voters, PM Orbán’s party and his allies, the Christian Democrats would reap almost half of all votes (48.66 per cent), with Jobbik coming in second with 17.7 per cent. The MSZP is measured at 13.7, while DK would attract 6 per cent of decided voters.

In his calculation of the distribution of parliamentary mandates, Kovács assumes that the MSZP and DK run joint candidates in all 106 individual constituencies, but could only win three in Budapest and one in Szeged, down from 10 altogether last time. They could fare better by allying themselves with Momentum and LMP, but the latter reject any alliance. An opposition victory would only seem possible if left-liberal and Jobbik votes were added together, which seems politically impossible and could hardly be followed by the voters. As a result, the opposition parties could reap the bulk of their seats from the 93 mandates distributed among party lists. All in all, if elections were held today, Fidesz would get 135 mandates (up from 133 in 2014), leaving the Left with 34 MPs, Jobbik with 23 and LMP with 7 seats in Parliament, Kovács writes.

Tags: elections, polls